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Serving and returning stats of each player on the ATP tour are listed on the ATP website under All Match Stats” and so they can actually offer you an indication - and a probability - of the probability of a participant holding or dropping serve during the course of a set.
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The betting odds should have mirrored the truth that Davydenko was a far stronger participant and had received the whole event in Sopot the earlier year, however the sums of cash bet towards him had been so vast that earlier than play had even begun the percentages were stacked closely in Vassallo Arguello's favour.